Cock on Ball

Unbelievable or unavoidable?

by Dave

A few months ago, Scott wrote an article about ‘the notion of progress’, comparing our results so far this season to last, and asking some important questions about our form. As we approach November and we show little improvement, I am beginning to have a few questions of my own, and I have to say my views on our progress are starting to shift.

In 2000 Ipswich finished 5th in the Premiership, narrowly missing out on a Champions League place on the last day of the season. That same year Sunderland managed an impressive 7th place, which they repeated the following year finishing four places ahead of arch rivals Newcastle, who had themselves finished in the top four twice in the previous two seasons. In 2005 Everton finished 4th in the league, ahead of their own local rivals Liverpool and qualified for the Champions league. And of course, in 2006 Spurs ever so narrowly missed out on a Champions League place, again on the last day of the season.

Since those days, Ipswich and Sunderland have both been relegated, and Newcastle have become a distinctly mid-table team.

So what’s my point?

Ever since Levy took over – and in particular since his big reshuffle in 2004 when almost our entire first eleven were replaced along with nearly all the staff – there’s been a tangible feeling of progression at White Hart Lane. Finishing 5th the following season, and spending the vast majority of the year ahead of Arsenal in the League gave us the sense that we’d finally made that leap that we’d waited so long for. There could be absolutely no doubt in anyone’s mind that we’d made significant progress.

However, last season was more difficult to judge. In many ways it was a success. Unlike the previous season we were impressive in both domestic cups reaching the later stages, and the highs of our European tour will be fondly remembered. We also managed to repeat our performance of the previous season of finishing 5th. This achievement I believe can be viewed from two positions.

One way to look at it, and I must admit that this was my view at the time, was to see this as a great achievement, affirming our label as the best team outside the top four and leading some to even start talking about a top 5. It was surely a point from which we could build, having familiarised ourselves with playing in 4 competitions, and push on to challenge the teams above us.

Nonetheless, some more cynical voices over the summer talked of cracks that we should be concerned about. They pointed at the enormous amount of goals that we had conceded last year compared to the previous season, and how this issue was not fully resolved in the transfer market. They complained how we still did not have a midfield general, nor a left winger, and they even suggested that we needed a new keeper if we wanted to improve. Most of all they baulked at the Ł16.5m spent on Bent in a position we had well covered.

Personally I was expecting more from the start of this season, I think we all were, but ten games in with a solitary win against the woeful Derby, I’m looking back on the fates of some of the teams I mentioned earlier, especially Newcastle, and I’m beginning to wonder if progress is necessarily ever a straight upwards climb. Looking at other teams, it’s very rare that you rise straight to the top and stay there. More likely that you’ll plateau at some point for a bit, and possibly even get worse before you can get better. I’m encouraged, however by the recent resurgence of Everton, who themselves could easily have finished in 5th place last season. I also look at Sunderland back in the Premier League and Newcastle climbing again towards the top of the table.

Already after just 10 games our expectations for this season have massively shifted. The hope of a top 4 finish is unquestionably gone, and qualification for Europe through the league is looking increasingly unlikely. In fact, some of us are now more concerned about our participation in the race at the other end of the table come the season’s end. Personally I think this won’t happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us finish in the bottom half of the table, and if this does happen I don’t think we should see it as the enormous disaster that will no doubt be the popular view.

I still think that we are way ahead of where we were 3 or 4 years ago, and although this season’s team seems irreparably broken, I firmly believe that the cracks can easily be fixed with the right personnel. I also feel that, while some of our purchases for the short term have been poor, we have some extremely exciting players that will come through over the next 3 to 5 years. Success often comes through failure, learning things the hard way, and looking back at history it’s completely unreasonable to expect our progress to be a steady rise straight to the top of the game. This season may end up being a blip, as might next season and maybe even the one after that, but ultimately I do believe that what we have now is the foundation of a great team, and before too long it will realise its potential.

Cock on Ball

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